Entries by Nabil Abu el Ata

Risk Management in the Age of Digital Disruption

Current risk management practices, which deal mostly with the risk of reoccurring historical events, cannot help business, government or economic leaders deal with the uncertainty and rate of change driven by the Fourth Industrial Revolution. As new innovations threaten to disrupt, business leaders lack the means to measure the risks and rewards associated with the adoption of new technologies and business models. Established companies are faltering as leaner and more agile start-ups bring to market the new products and services that customers of the on-demand or sharing economy desire—with better quality, faster speeds and/or lower costs than established companies can match.

How Dynamic Complexity Disrupts Business Operations

Successful risk determination and mitigation is dependent on how well we understand and account for dynamic complexity, its evolution, and the amount of time before the system will hit the singularity (singularities) through the intensification of stress on the dependencies and intertwined structures forming the system. In this blog post, we provide an example of a client case where dynamic complexity played a key role in terms of resource consumption, time to deliver and volume to deliver. It illustrates how the predictive emulation provided by X-Act OBC Platform can be used to isolate the evolving impact of dynamic complexity and calculate risk as an impact on system performance, cost, scalability and dependability.

Modeling Economic Dynamics

Traditional financial risk management methods were formulated in an analogy with the early foundational principles of thermodynamics. However, traditional economic models are incomplete models of reality because economic systems are not inclined to attain equilibrium states unless we are talking about very short windows of time (similar to meteorological or most nuclear or gravitational systems).

Blockchain: Navigating the Disruption

After years of theoretical debates and abstract use cases, it is no longer a question of if blockchain will cause market disruption, but rather when and how widely the impact will be felt. Now is the time to remove any outstanding doubts about blockchain applicability and strategically manage the business and operational risks that inevitably come with innovation.

Causal Deconstruction Method

Our causal deconstruction method is a seven-stage scientific methodology that is used to understand the constituent components of a system and any dependencies by establishing the base dynamics, deconstructing complexity, constructing an emulator, predicting singularities, comparing to the actual system, defining improvements and monitoring the execution. Causal deconstruction allows us to uncover results that often defy […]

Understanding a System through Deconstruction

A system is composed of components, objects, or members—each having specific properties that characterize its behavior. All members interact, impact, serve and receive from other members. Depending on the intensity of such relations and their configuration, the overall system will expose behavior patterns and characteristics.

Optimal Business Control

Optimal business control (OBC) is a set of management, data collection, analytics, machine learning and automation processes through which management predicts, evaluates, and, when necessary, responds to mitigate dynamic complexity related risks that hinder the realization of business goals.

Perturbation Theory and Risk Management

Perturbation theory provides a mathematical method for finding an approximate solution to a problem, by starting from the exact solution of a related problem. A critical feature of the technique is a middle step that breaks the problem into “solvable” and “perturbation” parts. Perturbation theory is applicable if the problem at hand cannot be solved exactly, but can be formulated by adding a “small” term to the mathematical description of the exactly solvable problem.